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Benchmark indices remained buoyant; volatility would be witnessed owing to expiry of February derivatives contracts..

Sensex remained buoyant and closed near 5 month high owing to recovery witnessed in Pharma, Technology stocks and rally in HDFC Bank, offsetting initial weakness due to Tata Motors ' disappointed earnings, and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen's comments hinting at a rate hike in next month's policy meeting on March 14-15. The Nifty gained 0.3 percent, taking the total gains in four weeks to 5.6 percent.

Pharma stocks were galvanised by a slew of approvals granted by foreign regulators, while HDFC Bank zoomed to its 52-week high after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday allowed foreign investors to increase stake in the lender. The central bank put HDFC Bank back on the FII ban list after foreign shareholding exceeded the prescribed limit of 74% within hours of trading.

Sentiments also got a boost after RBI Governor Urjit Patel said India’s economic growth will make a “sharp V” recovery after a short drop in the aftermath of demonetisation.

Gold was set for its third week of gains as political uncertainty spurred demand for the safe haven precious metal.

Brent crude futures were marginally down, paring back earlier gains. OPEC sources told Reuters the producers' club could extend its output cut in order to rein in global oversupply.

Copper ended the week lower as profit-taking pared back the price of the three-month copper contract, though concerns over supply from Chilean and Indonesian mines remained.

Global Markets

Asian stock markets took a breather on Friday from their recent surge as investors booked profits, while the dollar inched up after Thursday's slide and optimism over possible renewed supply cuts by OPEC lifted oil prices.


European equities fell on Thursday after seven straight sessions of gains, with weaker metal prices weighing on miners. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.4% after recent gains to a two-month high on Wednesday.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan pulled back 0.2%, on track to end the week up 1.2%, its fourth straight weekly gain.

Overnight, Wall Street lost momentum, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely eking out its sixth straight record high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped a seven-day winning streak as investors slowed buying to digest recent gains.

 Bond Yields - Euro debt yields dip

Bond yields slipped pretty much across the board. Yields on US Treasuries, which tend to set the bar for global borrowing costs, hovered at 2.43 percent having crept higher during the week on US rate hike speculation, while yields on Europe's benchmark, German Bunds, were down 3 basis points at 0.32 per cent.  There has been a noticeable divide this week, with safe-haven Bunds and other core countries like France and Austria have seeing yields rise, while Spain and Italy have seen theirs fall for the first week in five, helped by some soothing noises from the European Central Bank.  The ECB's minutes on Thursday indicated little appetite for curbing stimulus, setting the scene for a divergence in central bank policy between the US and Europe.

Ajcon’s view

We believe volatility is expected in the coming holiday truncated week on expiry of February derivatives. Investors will closely watch assembly elections in five states, which are crucial for ruling party BJP, especially after demonetisation. The market will remain shut on Friday in the coming week due to Mahashivratri holiday. On Monday, the market may react to the outcome of 10th meeting of GST Council, headed by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and comprising representatives of all states, on February 18.

Q3FY17 earnings season has been a mixed bag so far.  We believe that street participants are keenly waiating Q4FY17 earnings (wherein the actual impact of demonetisation might be seen).

Monday will be a big day for investors in Indian information technology company shares. The board of Tata Consultancy Services would be meeting on Monday to consider a buyback plan. The size, price and mode of buyback will be keenly watched by street participants. We believe technology companies Infosys and Wipro are facing similar pressure and could be next. Earlier, on January 31, the board of MphasiS had approved a buyback worth a little over Rs. 1,100 crore

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