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Value emerging in midcaps; PSU banks may witness some relief..

The benchmark indices pared their day's gains to end flat on Friday. The S&P BSE Sensex ended at 36,542, down 7 points. The index had hit a fresh all-time high of 36,740.07 in intra-day on Friday tracking global markets. The broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,019, down 4 points. The World Bank released 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) data of top countries with India occupying the sixth spot on the list. India's GDP in 2017 was pegged at US$2.597 trillion, just ahead of France's $2.582 trillion. 

 

Foreign investors have pulled out nearly Rs. 1,200 crore from the debt markets in the first two weeks of the month on higher fuel prices and possibilities of rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. The latest sell-off comes after foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew an amount close to Rs 50,000 crore from the debt markets in last five months (February to July). Prior to that, overseas investors had infused over Rs 8,500 crore in January.  In contrast, foreign portfolio investors have put in Rs 592 crore in equities during the period under review. After being on a selling spree for three consecutive months where FPIs pulled out net assets worth over Rs 20,000 crore (between April-June) from the equity markets, the month of July with net inflow of Rs 552 crore may appear like a breather.

 

Sectors and Stocks

Reliance Industries (RIL) crossed Rs. 7 trillion market capitalisation mark for the first time on Friday and became second Indian firm to cross this mark after information technology giant Tata Consultancy Services (TCS).

The IT major, Infosys settled 2.2% higher at Rs 1,323 on the National Stock Exchange. Among sectoral indices, the Nifty PSU Bank index fell over 2% weighed by a decline in Canara Bank and Indian Bank. Shares of smallcap companies were under pressure with the S&P BSE Smallcap index falling more than 1% after a sharp decline in stock prices of PVR, KNR Constructions, Inox Leisure. Meanwhile, as many as 46 stocks include Den Networks, Tejas Networks, Oriental Bank of Commerce, Kwality, Kajaria Ceramics, JBF Industries, Andhra Bank, Dena Bank and Balalji Telefims from the BSE Smallcap index have hit their respective 52-week lows on Friday last week. Den Networks had slipped 11% to Rs 52 in intra-day trade on Friday,falling 30% in past seven trading sessions, after the Reliance Industriesís (RIL) chairman Mukesh Ambani announced the launch of Jioís fibre to home or fixed line broadband services called Jio GigaFiber. The launch of the home broadband services is expected to intensify competition for both the direct-to-home as well as cable broadband providers. Shares of Bajaj Finance hit a new high of Rs 2,460 per share on the BSE, rising by 2% today and extending their 2.5% gain on Thursday, on expectations of healthy financial performance for the quarter ended June 2018 (Q1FY19). In past two months after the March quarter (Q4FY18) results, Bajaj Finance has outperformed the market by surging 32% as compared to 2.8% rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. We had recommended Bajaj Finance at Rs. 2,120 on May 23, 2018. The company had reported a better than expected 60% year on year (YoY) jumped in its standalone net profit at Rs 7.21 billion in Q4FY18. Net revenue from operations grew 40% at Rs 23.43 billion against Rs 16.78 billion in the corresponding quarter of previous fiscal.

 

Global Markets


Asian shares extended their recovery on Friday, as investors shifted their focus to bullish expectations for Wall Street earnings and as a weaker yen supported Japanese stocks, though Sino-US trade tensions have tempered exuberance. China's GDP growth rate for Q2CY18, and China Industrial Production and Retail Sales for June month will be released on Monday. US Retail Sales for June and Euro Area Balance of Trade data for May will be announced on the same day while European Union and China Summit will be held on the same day.
US Industrial Production for June and China Industrial Capacity Utilization for Q2 will be declared on Tuesday while European Union and Japan summit will be held on the same day.

US MBA Mortgage Application for the week ended July 13 and Housing Starts for June, and Euro Area Inflation data for June will be released on Wednesday.

Japan's Balance of Trade data for June and US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 14 will be announced on Thursday.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.6 per cent, adding to a 0.6 per cent rise on Thursday, after US stocks ended the day higher. Japan's Nikkei stock index was 1.9 per cent higher. The index hit a two-and-a-half-week high Friday supported by weakness in the yen, and as index-heavy stock Fast Retailing jumped after posting strong third-quarter results.

 

Ajcon Global view

In the past week, TCS' earnings beat street expectations, while those of IndusInd Bank were stable. IT major Infosys reported a mixed set of numbers for the quarter gone by. As per media reports, PNB's recovery of over Rs 7,700 crore in bad loans during the first quarter in the current fiscal has surpassed the total amount it recovered in the entire 2017-18 financial year, indicating that it has embarked on the turnaround path, the bank's top official has said. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) resolution process has greatly helped Punjab National Bank, which was hit by nearly USD 2 billion fraud allegedly carried out by jeweller Nirav Modi and his associates. In the first quarter itself, 2-3 big accounts have been resolved. As a result, the bank has got over Rs 3,000 crore only through the resolution process. During the quarter (April-June, 2018-19), two big accounts --Bhushan Steel and Electrosteel were resolved through the IBC process. We believe this development will augur well for the badly hit PSU banks.

Going ahead, we believe markets will take cue from Q1FY19 results, management commentary post Q1FY19 results, movement in rupee and crude oil prices, key developments from ongoing trade wars between US and China, WPI data on Monday. More than 100 companies will declare their earnings for the June quarter this coming week, including Hindustan Unilever, Zee Entertainment, ICICI Lombard, Ashok Leyland, UltraTech Cement, Bandhan Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, RBL Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ABB India, Bajaj Auto and HDFC Bank. We believe most of the quality names are available in large cap space at good valuation now. In addition, after the massive destruction in midcaps and smallcaps, one can consider Companies in midcaps and smallcaps space wherein FY18 earnings have been strong in sunrise sectors backed by ethical management. Many of these smaller Companies are expected to perform better in FY19.

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Ashoka Ajmera
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